What About Tomorrow – A Release Date Speculation (Part 1)

Embark Beach, 7-heroes-party, it’s time to see the signs. ArenaNet is, sadly enough, getting ready to set aside Guild Wars en begin a new story. The story of Guild Wars 2. Which means Guild Wars 2 is coming, and maybe sooner than we might expect. https://gw2bydc.wordpress.com/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif

This week, ArenaNet released Embark Beach and the long-anticipated 7-heroes-party. Embark Beach is meant for players to gather at a central point to meet other players who want to do the same mission and same quests as you, making it easier to team up with other player. The 7-heroes-party is meant to make the life of the ones who will continue playing Guild Wars after the release of its sequel easier, so that when the world of Guild Wars is abandoned by those who want to move forward in the future, those who stick to the past still have a change to have a full party with good teammates. I think that Embark Beach is a lost cause. When players have the opportunity to team up with 7 heroes, they will ignore all the other players because they can instantly have the team they want without the fear of having noobs or leechers. I think it would be better if they would’ve released the 7-heroes-party on the day Guild Wars 2 was released. At least, players would’ve been more forced to team up with real players until most abandoned the game and it would’ve become impossible to team up with anybody, because everybody would be gone. But we’re not here to talk about the state of Guild Wars. We’re here to talk about the future of Guild Wars 2, or what I think is going to be the future.

A few days ago, the thief was, unwillingly, revealed. The reveal was a leak, so it wasn’t meant to be revealed. This should always be kept in consideration if we want to guess the release date. With the thief released, there are just two professions left to be released, together with some more detailed information about crafting, PvP, Guilds, Lion’s Arch and some more Race Weeks.

Next week, we have PAX East, where the thief was supposed to be released. Togheter with PAX East, there is going to be week-long blog about the thief, attributes, and other new features we’re going to see in the new demo. Crafting is also a part of the game that is going to be revealed at PAX East and is going to be talked about in the week-long blog. So, with that load of information being revealed, there is little left to be revealed. The moment is finally there. Everything about Guild Wars 2 will soon be revealed.

The things that really need to be talked about is PvP, the races and the two unrevealed professions. And we can guess about the Race Weeks and the professions. In the past, the normal intervals between profession releases was 6 weeks and the normal intervals between Race Weeks was 2 weeks. My earlier speculation about the Charr Week being this week seems was wrong, so I’m going to start over.

This is what we know so far:

7 – 11 March: The week-long blog about the thief, crafting and the new attribute system.
11 – 13 March: PAX East

Like I said, the normal intervals between profession releases was 6 weeks and the normal intervals between Race Weeks was 2 weeks, so I think it’s going to be as following:

7 – 11 March: The week-long blog about the thief, crafting and the new attribute system.
11 – 13 March: PAX East
21 – 25 March: Charr Week
4 – 8 March: Asura Week
Around 18 – 22 April: 1st profession release
2 – 6 May: Sylvari Week
Around 30 April – 3 June: 2nd profession reveal
13 – 17 June: PvP and Lion’s Arch Week.

This is all based on facts. This was always the way and it’s most likely to be this way. Now, I’m going to start guessing. I think that PvP and Lion’s Arch are going to be linked to each other and there’s going to be a week around it, like with the races. It needs to be after the last profession reveal, because PvP is a key element where all professions need to be revealed. After PvP and Lion’s Arch, we practically know everything about the game and that everything about it is finished, so that means they can start testing. I’m going to just say a number here, but I think they are going to reveal on the last day of the PvP week that they are going to start testing the game in one month. That means they have enough time to wrap everything up, give it one last good look and start testing it. Closed alpha and beta testing is said to be ‘small’, so I think it’s going to talk 2 – 3 months for this. This means testing, adjusting and determining everything. After those 2 – 3 months, I think they’re going to tell us that in 2 – 3 weeks, they are going to start the public beta, which will last for a month and a halve, and then they are going to wrap it up and start preparing for the last stage: shipping. A month and halve after the end of the public beta, the game will be released.

Now, do not forget that I’m just guessing and that I’m very optimistic. Anyway: this is my speculated schedule:

7 – 11 March: The week-long blog about the thief, crafting and the new attribute system.
11 – 13 March: PAX East
21 – 25 March: Charr Week
4 – 8 March: Asura Week
Around 18 – 22 April: 1st profession release
2 – 6 May: Sylvari Week
Around 30 April – 3 June: 2nd profession reveal
13 – 17 June: PvP and Lion’s Arch Week.
11 July – 10 October: Closed alpha and beta testing.
7 November – 6 December: Public Beta testing
25 December: Guild Wars 2 release day

And that’s the day our new life begins. Well, at least our virtual Guild Wars life.

Now, the last part is a speculation based on my idea’s and guesses. I’m going to do some research about how long closed alpha and beta and open beta tests take and post a new speculation really soon, probably in a few days. If you can help me: leave a comment telling my how long closed alpha and beta and public beta testing took for previous MMORPG’s and add the name of the MMO.

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One response to “What About Tomorrow – A Release Date Speculation (Part 1)

  1. 95% sure that the game will not be released around the Christmas holidays or the New Year’s time off. Games do not make big profit at that time according to statistical reports.

    Mind that they may have said that there will be public alpha but they never said when. I think (hope) it has already started. It is intended for testing by friends and family members, which they did say they have been doing already.

    I do not remember them saying anything about closed beta. I think there will be no closed beta after the closed alpha.

    I think that either the release date of the game or the open beta will be announced at the end of the last event they will attend this year.

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